TopicHorse Racing Handicapping: Speed Versus Class the Debate Goes On
Therefore, while it is nice to beat the big favorite, it may be wiser Double Chance Dave Review to pass those races, not because there isn't value in the win pool on other runners, but because the strike rate is just too low. How can you respect a favorite that isn't going to return value. Maybe from a financial point of view it deserves no respect, but you have to show some consideration for any runner that will win three out of five races. Sometimes we have to bow to the psychological side of the game and give our ego and nerves a break.
Horse racing handicapping may be done many different ways. There is no right or wrong way, as long as you make a profit in the end. What works for one person may not work for another. Some people prefer a comprehensive approach and handicap every race thoroughly comparing each factor and runner until a final consensus of ability and value is achieved.
Others prefer a more casual approach focusing on jockeys or trainers or even situational wagering. Spot plays fall into that category. They are a particular situation that the handicapper identifies and knows to be profitable from past experience. The problem with these particular wagers, however, is that once they are publicized they are often bet so heavily by the crowd that they lose their value.
An example of such a situation is the lone early speed in a race. If a horse is a front runner and there are no other horses in the race who will challenge it in the early part of the contest, it will have an easy trip and may hold on to win. The logic behind this spot play is good, but unfortunately it is also well known. Few of these front running types go off at long odds when they fit the description of lone early speed.